Analysts say bitcoin's brief recovery from February lows was running on leverage rather than fresh capital.

Data from research firm Kaiko shows spot volume for the top 10 crypto assets averaged roughly $80 billion weekly throughout 2026, less than half the $178 billion weekly average recorded in 2025.

Bitcoin open interest climbed from $16 billion to $20 billion over the same stretch. It reflects a derivatives market re-leveraging without the underlying spot demand to support it, Kaiko analyst Laurens Fraussen wrote. The divergence further sharpens at the exchange level.

Binance futures cumulative volume delta — a running measure of net buying versus selling pressure — bottomed near negative $6.2 billion in February before recovering to positive $4.2 billion. Bybit flipped from negative $1.4 billion to positive $0.3 billion over the same period. Hyperliquid maintained levels at negative $3.9 billion, with perpetual sellers still fading the move, Fraussen wrote.

The combined read is leverage doing the work that spot conviction has not, Kaiko’s research analyst noted.

Market selloff

Diana Pires, chief business officer at sFOX, attributed the speed of the selloff to that same leverage concentration. "After several weeks of price appreciation, bullish positioning had accumulated, leaving Bitcoin more vulnerable once selling pressure started to build," Pires said. "When leverage unwinds quickly, derivatives markets often react faster than spot markets, which can amplify volatility and contribute to sharper short-term drawdowns."

Analysts at Bitfinex quantified the structural shortfall.

The Realized Cap 30-day net position change, which measures monthly onchain capital movement, reached roughly $2.8 billion in the wake of Bitcoin's recovery toward $82,000. High-conviction rallies during the 2023 to 2025 bull cycle accelerated from a $2 billion baseline toward $10 billion per month.

The current reading, Bitfinex analysts wrote, leaves the market without the institutional velocity needed to withstand a higher-for-longer rate environment.

Macro pressure tightens the squeeze

The policy backdrop has also grown less forgiving.

Traders are now pricing in a 60% probability the Federal Reserve raises rates by end of 2026, while the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz has accelerated a drawdown in global energy inventories that is keeping oil near triple-digit levels. The combination compresses the room for risk assets broadly, multiple analysts opined.

Bitfinex analysts put the Fed dilemma plainly: the incoming chair inherits a central bank that has missed its inflation target for five consecutive years and an inflation expectations curve that is no longer anchored at 2%, with political pressure running in the opposite direction from what the data supports.

"The base case for the second half of 2026 has shifted from rate cuts and a soft landing toward a Federal Reserve that must defend its inflation credibility against a market positioning for the opposite," Bitfinex analysts wrote.

Pires also drew a distinction that frames where the market actually sits. "ETF outflows suggest some institutional capital is becoming more cautious in the near term, while continued treasury-style accumulation from larger buyers points to a market where participation is becoming more selective, not disappearing," she said.

Disclaimer: The Block is an independent media outlet that delivers news, research, and data. As of November 2023, Foresight Ventures is a majority investor of The Block. Foresight Ventures invests in other companies in the crypto space. Crypto exchange Bitget is an anchor LP for Foresight Ventures. The Block continues to operate independently to deliver objective, impactful, and timely information about the crypto industry. Here are our current financial disclosures.

2026 The Block. All Rights Reserved. This article is provided for informational purposes only. It is not offered or intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.
source: https://www.tradingview.com/news/the_block:f24708f45094b:0-bitcoin-slide-extends-as-record-etf-outflows-and-60-rate-hike-probability-signal-structural-cracks-beneath-the-rally-analysts/